Mamata Banerjee campaigns for her fourth consecutive term as Chief Minister of West Bengal
Will Mamata Win Again? Key Factors That Could Decide the 2026 Bengal Polls
With the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections approaching, political circles are buzzing with a key question: Will Mamata Banerjee secure a fourth consecutive term as Chief Minister? A seasoned politician and the leader of the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Mamata has held power since 2011 and has left a lasting impact on Bengal’s political landscape. While her popularity remains strong, analysts and citizens are divided on her chances. Some see her as unbeatable due to her popular welfare schemes and grassroots support, while others believe rising challenges and public discontent could end her long tenure.
Mamata Banerjee’s political journey began when she broke away from the Indian National Congress in 1998 to form the TMC. In 2011, she made history by ending the CPI(M)’s 34-year rule, casting herself as a champion of the poor and a symbol of Bengali pride. Since then, Mamata has sustained her power through strategic outreach, particularly among women and minority communities. Her direct connection with the public, along with flagship welfare programs, has helped her remain relevant in Bengal’s changing political climate.
Welfare Schemes and Ground Support: Will Mamata Win Again with Her Old Strategy?
One of Mamata’s biggest strengths is her ability to connect with the grassroots. Programs like Lakshmir Bhandar, which provides monthly financial support to women, and Swasthya Sathi, a universal health insurance initiative, have been widely praised. Kanyashree and Rupashree, which support girls’ education and marriage, have earned her strong goodwill among young women and mothers. These initiatives have turned Mamata into a protective figure, especially in rural and semi-urban Bengal, where government benefits significantly influence voter decisions.
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Another factor in her favor is the BJP’s declining momentum in the state since the 2021 Assembly elections. Although the party secured 77 seats and emerged as the main opposition, it has since faced internal rifts, a lack of strong local leadership, and a loss of voter trust. In civic body elections and recent bypolls, the TMC has maintained a significant share of the vote, particularly in South Bengal and urban centers like Kolkata and Howrah.
However, Mamata’s path to a fourth term is not without serious challenges. The TMC has been shaken by corruption scandals, including the SSC recruitment scam and school job irregularities, which have damaged the party’s reputation. High-profile arrests and ongoing investigations have given the opposition, particularly the BJP, ample ammunition to question the government’s integrity. Moreover, allegations of rape and misconduct involving TMC members have sparked public outrage, especially among women voters and civil society groups.
This growing anti-incumbency sentiment, especially among the youth and urban middle class, could shift momentum toward the BJP if it can effectively capitalize on these issues. Public concerns about unemployment, a lack of industrial investment, and poor infrastructure have opened the door for the opposition to promote a governance model focused on development and transparency.
Furthermore, the TMC is facing internal strife, with some senior leaders either leaving or expressing dissatisfaction. The succession debate involving Abhishek Banerjee, Mamata’s nephew and TMC’s national general secretary, has also led to whispers of nepotism. If internal divisions persist, the TMC’s organizational strength—especially in North Bengal and tribal regions—could weaken, creating opportunities for the BJP.
Scandals, Corruption, and Opposition Rise: Will Mamata Win Again Amid Challenges?
The BJP, for its part, has sharpened its strategy for 2026. The party intends to adopt a more localized campaign, focusing on caste dynamics, religious sentiments, and specific regional issues. If it can resolve its leadership challenges and present credible candidates, the BJP has a genuine chance at gaining power. Rising anger over corruption, alleged administrative failures, and growing public demand for transparency have created a political climate ripe for change.
Still, Mamata Banerjee’s political resilience should not be underestimated. She has bounced back from major setbacks, including protests, clashes with the central government, and even personal injury during election campaigning. Her emotional connection with the public, strong speaking skills, and ability to mobilize party support during elections remain significant strengths.
In conclusion, while Mamata Banerjee remains a strong contender for a fourth consecutive term, her victory is no longer guaranteed. The upcoming election will likely be a fierce battle between the TMC’s welfare-focused governance and the BJP’s anti-corruption and development message. The final outcome will depend on how well each party addresses voter concerns, manages internal dynamics, and mobilizes support across Bengal’s diverse regions.
Stay connected with KhabriDose.com for real-time updates, election analysis, and in-depth political coverage leading up to the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026.
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